Yoshihito Nishioka vs Nick Kyrgios Odds & Prediction

Yoshihito Nishioka vs Nick Kyrgios Odds & Prediction

Nick Kyrgios waving to the crowd in Washington, DC

Aug 6, 2022; Washington, DC, USA; Nick Kyrgios (AUS) gestures after losing a point against Mikael Ymer (SWE) (not pictured) in a men’s singles semifinal on day six of the Citi Open at Rock Creek Park Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Nick Kyrgios is a big favorite against Yoshihito Nishioka in Sunday’s Citi Open singles final
Nishioka shocked No. 1 Andrey Rublev in the semifinals Saturday
Below, see the Kyrgios vs Nishioka odds, picks, and best bets for the Citi Open final

Nick Kyrgios’s 2022 season has been a renaissance, as he’s (mostly) been engaged and competitive – if sometimes fiery – in most of his matches.

In Washington, DC this week, he’s in both the singles and doubles finals and is a heavy favorite to defeat fellow unseeded player Yoshihito Nishioka.

Nishioka vs Kyrgios Odds

Player
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Yoshihito Nishioka (JPN)
+3.5 (+145)
+480
O 22.5 (+120)
Nick Kyrgios (AUS)
-3.5 (-182)
-670
U 22.5 (-150)

Odds as of Aug. 7 at Barstool Sportsbook.

 

 

When he’s fully engaged, Kyrgios can beat the best in the world. But if his body often lets him down, he recovered beautifully from a late-night (early morning) marathon quarterfinal win over Frances Tiafoe that ended at nearly 1 a.m. Saturday

He returned that evening and took care of Sweden’s Mikael Ymer, 7-6 (4), 6-3 in just over an hour and a half. He fired 10 aces, with no double faults. And he actually had a better success rate with his second serve (79%) than his first (77%).

Ymer never had a sniff at a break point.

Then, Kyrgios and partner Jack Sock went out and won a delayed doubles quarterfinal in a match tiebreak over the French team of Mahut and Roger-Vasselin.

Nishioka vs Kyrgios Head-to-Head

26 (Sept. 27, 1995)
Age
27 (April 27, 1995)
Mie, Japan
Birthplace
Canberra, Australia
5-7
Height
6-4
1
Career ATP Singles Titles
6
No. 48 (Feb. 24, 2020)
Career High Ranking
No. 13 (Oct. 24, 2016)
No. 96
Current Ranking
No. 63
$3,805,379
Career Prize Money
$11,213,200
10-10
2022 Won/Loss Record
26-7
0
Career Head to Head
4

Nishioka is a not-dissimilar player to Ymer in the sense that he’s not especially big, but he’s very speedy and consistent.

He’s also durable.

Exhausted after his marathon win over Dan Evans, Nishioka came out and took care of No. 1 seed Andrey Rublev in an hour and 20 minutes in his semifinal Saturday.

Nishioka saving Rublev from facing Kyrgios, remembering Miami I think it is for better…pic.twitter.com/z1waJqxJTQ

— Llama Says ☄?? (@funnyzeitgist) August 7, 2022

Rublev has proven extremely tough to beat in ATP 500 tournaments. But not on this day; the Russian won just 31 per cent of points on his second serve.

That said, Rublev’s second serve is a demonstrable weakness; Kyrgios’s second serve is typically very, very difficult to get on top of.

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Kyrgios Dominating Almost Every category

How dominant has Kyrgios been through this week at the Citi Open?

He leads Nishioka in almost every statistical category. Both have played five matches, and Kyrgios has yet to be broken. Nishioka has had 40 break points against his serve.

Citi Open Match Statistics

12
Aces
84
62.95%
1st Serve Percentage
68.5%
64.53%
1st Serve Points Won
82.28%
57.05%
2nd Serve Points Won
59.63%
77.42%
Service Games Won
100%
26/40 (65%)
Break Points Saved
9/9 (100%)
60.48%
Points Won Against 2nd Serve
46.81%
31.75%
Return Games Won
20.37%
20/39 (51.28%)
Break Points Converted
11/23 (47.83%)

 

Where Nishioka has been better is in his percentage of return games won. Kyrgios has won about 20 per cent of them; Nishioka has done much better at nearly 32 per cent.

Kyrgios authored the two shortest matches of the week. Meanwhile, Nishioke sweated through the three of the four longest of the week (statistics courtesy of the ATP – click here for the full report).

Kyrgios vs Nishioka Match History

Year
Tournament
Surface
Score
Winner
2019
Washington D.C. (R16)
Outdoor Hard
6-2, 7-5
Kyrgios
2018
Tokyo (R32)
Indoor Hard
7-5, 7-6 (3)
Kyrgios
2016
Atlanta (SF)
Outdoor Hard
6-3, 3-6, 6-3
Kyrgios
2014
Savannah Challenger (R16)
Outdoor Clay
6-3, 6-2
Kyrgios

Kyrgios’ record against Nishioka has been pretty comprehensive. And they’ve met twice during this time of the year, in the heat and humidity of the southern U.S.

Both of those times – in Atlanta in 2016, and in Washington three years ago – Kyrgios defeated Nishioka and then won the entire tournament.

You’d expect the same on Sunday.

Looking for Prop Value and Upset Payoffs

With the odds so heavily in Kyrgios favour, though, it’s time to look at some of the other props that can have betting value.

Kyrgios and -3.5 games is at -182.

The odds there will be at least one tiebreak are +130.

But, given what Nishioka did to Rublev yesterday, and the fact that the Aussie must be physically and mentally exhausted by now (and ripe for a meltdown, because the plucky Nishioka is going to have plenty of support), the odds are +1050 for the Japanese lefty to pull off a straight-set shocker.

A total under 20.5 games is at +130.

Best Bet: Kyrgios in Two Sets  (-186)

 

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Stephanie Myles

MLB
NHL
Tennis
Sports Writer

Sports Writer

Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She’s written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.

MLB
NHL
Tennis

Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She’s written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.

Author: Jesse Smith