San Francisco’s Super Bowl Odds After Naming Trey Lance Starting QB

San Francisco's Super Bowl Odds After Naming Trey Lance Starting QB

Trey Lance delivers a pass in warmups

Jan 9, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance (5) warms up before the game against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The 49ers Super Bowl odds didn’t budge after naming Trey Lance their staring QB
San Francisco’s championship odds remain at +1600, the sixth shortest price on the board
Read below for analysis on if the Niners are a buy or fade in the Super Bowl Futures market with Lance under center

The San Francisco 49ers finally confirmed the news that the football world has known all offseason. Jimmy Garoppolo is out, and Trey Lance will be QB1 in 2022.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan officially made the announcement on Tuesday to the media, but the news didn’t move the needle in the NFL futures bets market.

Super Bowl Odds

Team
Odds
Buffalo Bills
+650
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+750
Kansas City Chiefs
+950
Los Angeles Rams
+1100
Green Bay Packers
+1200
San Francisco 49ers
+1600
Los Angeles Chargers
+1600
Denver Broncos
+1700
Dallas Cowboys
+1800
Baltimore Ravens
+2100
Cincinnati Bengals
+2100
Indianapolis Colts
+2200
Cleveland Browns
+2800
Philadelphia Eagles
+3000
Tennessee Titans
+3000
Arizona Cardinals
+3000
New England Patriots
+4000
Minnesota Vikings
+4000
Miami Dolphins
+4000
Las Vegas Raiders
+4000
New Orleans Saints
+4000
Pittsburgh Steelers
+7000
Washington Commanders
+8000
New York Giants
+8000
Carolina Panthers
+10000
Chicago Bears
+10000
Detroit Lions
+10000
Jacksonville Jaguars
+12500
Seattle Seahawks
+13000
New York Jets
+15000
Atlanta Falcons
+25000
Houston Texans
+30000

Odds as of July 26 at FanDuel Sportsbook

San Francisco’s price in the Super Bowl odds remains unchanged at +1600. That’s still the sixth shortest price tag on the board behind a group that includes the defending champs and divisional rival Los Angeles.

Lance’s anointment did cause a minor adjustment in the NFC West odds, but a not a positive one for 49ers backers. San Francisco’s odds to win the division were lengthened from +180 to +200, a sign that Lance perhaps isn’t ready for stardom just yet.

Temper Expectations in 2022 for Lance

In the eyes of oddsmakers, Lance doesn’t give the Niners are better chance to win. After giving up a King’s ransom to draft him third overall last year San Fran had to make this move. But, it’s not a slam dunk that he’s going to evolve into the superstar everyone projects.

Trey Lance’s time is now pic.twitter.com/Yfgq1MUTa8

— PFF (@PFF) July 26, 2022

His ceiling is significantly higher than Garoppolo’s based on raw talent and athleticism, but his floor is much lower. With Jimmy G under center San Fran controlled games with its rushing attack and abused defenses with the play action game if they loaded up the box. It was a recipe that took them to the 2019 Super Bowl, and the NFC Championship Game last year.

We can project the Niners to be one of the run heaviest teams again this season with Lance under center, but there are serious questions about his ability as a passer.

Yes, he has a rocket for an arm but he completed just 58% of his throws as rookie. He also struggled badly to react and adjust to complex NFL coverages. That should come as no surprise, seeing how he played essentially just one season of college football against inferior competition in the Missouri Valley Conference.

Kyle Shanahan on the 49ers’ roster: “I think our team’s in a great spot to turn it over to a quarterback who hasn’t played before.”

He’s also optimistic about the potential of the interior O-line in front of Trey Lance

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) July 26, 2022

In two career NFL starts he was asked to throw the ball just 52 times, and everything that was schemed was extremely vanilla. The bull case for him is that he’ll have the benefit of being surrounded by talented playmakers like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, and will have one of the most creative minds in football in Shanahan calling the plays.

Lance is a legit dual threat QB in the same vain as Lamar Jackson. However, as we’ve seen with the 2019 NFL MVP come playoff time opposing defenses can take away rushing lanes and force running QB’s to be pocket passers.

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Fade 49ers Futures

With Lance entrenched as QB1 the 49ers really are a wildcard no matter which NFL betting market you’re targeting. He has the skillset to take the team to the next level, but given how raw he looked last season it’s simply too difficult to put your faith in his potential in his first year as the starter.

True or False: The Niners are better off with Trey Lance as QB1 ✍️ pic.twitter.com/uTZZHNNk5v

— Beerly Football (@BeerlyFootball) July 26, 2022

At least with Garoppolo you knew exactly what you were getting. He was going to put you in position to win games by comfortably running Shanahan’s scheme and reacting to what the defense was giving him. He was a far less sexy option, but one that you could bank on.

Speaking of Garoppolo, the 49ers want him off the roster but as of right now have no interest in releasing him. Assuming everything goes well with his physical this week, expect his trade market to heat up. There’s handful of teams that could use a starer with a career 33-14 record, especially one who’s QB should be in line for a lengthy suspension.

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Chris Amberley

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As SBD’s resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he’d rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
Golf

As SBD’s resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he’d rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

Author: Jesse Smith