Royals vs Astros Odds & Picks (July 7)

Royals vs Astros Odds & Picks (July 7)

Royals vs Astros Odds & Picks

Jul 6, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2) celebrates his run with teammates against the Kansas City Royals in the second inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros are solid -350 home favorites over the Kansas City Royals in an American League game slated for Thursday, July 7
Houston entered play Wednesday showing a 5-1 straight up record in the past six meetings with Kansas City
The ROI of 30.81% for betting against the Royals is the highest margin in MLB

The vast gulf between the Kansas City Royals (29-50, 15-25 away) and Houston Astros (53-27, 26-11 home) is evident in the outcomes that arrive by wagering on the two teams.

The return on investment (ROI) for betting against the Royals is an MLB-high 30.81%. As well, the Royals are the second-best ROI to bet against in terms of the runline (17.42%).

Meanwhile, betting on Houston in the moneyline delivers the #2 ROI in baseball (14.24%). The Astros are also providing the fifth-best ROI (9.51%) when bettors play them in the runline.

Oddsmakers are following both of these trends in setting the betting line on Thursday’s game between these two American League squads. It’s the Astros who are set as solid -350 home favorites. Of Houston’s first 64 games this season, 47 have gone under. That’s the most of an MLB club.

Royals vs Astros Odds

Team
Moneyline
Runline
Total
Kansas City Royals
+275
+1.5 (+130)
O 8 (-115)
Houston Astros
-350
-1.5 (-155)
U 8 (-10)

Odds as of July 6th at Caesars Sportsbook. See available Caesars Sportsbook promo code. 

First pitch at Minute Maid Park is set for 2:10pm ET on Friday, July 1. Clouds are in the forecast, with 12 mph wind and a temperature of 99 degrees.

 

At odds of -350, the Astros are offering an implied probability of victory of 77.78% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on Houston is going to provide a payout of $12.90.

In the MLB betting trends, the public is supporting the Astros in both the moneyline and the runline at a rate of 59%. There’s also 59% of public wagers backing the under in the total.

The MLB betting trends show that in the AL Division odds, Houston is -350 to win the AL West. Kansas City is +12000 to win the AL Central. The MLB pennant odds show the Astros at +225 to repeat as AL champs. Houston is the third betting choice at +550 in the World Series odds.

Kansas City vs Houston Probable Pitchers

Kris Bubic’s ERA is the area code for Augusta, Georgia (7.06). That’s a pretty fair indication the the Royals left-hander hasn’t quite mastered pitching in the majors.

Bubic rates among the bottom 4% of MLB pitchers in xERA (5.94), wOBA (.383), and xwOBA (.389). He’s in the bottom 6% in hard-hit percentage (46.9), the bottom 7% in xBA (.294) and xSLG (.534) and the bottom 8% in bases on balls percentage (12.6).

Kris Bubic pitching the baseball. #TogetherRoyal pic.twitter.com/P3DSjfi5uf

— Matt Weishaar 🥃🇺🇸 (@mweishaar1071) June 28, 2022

So he doesn’t strike out that many batters (37 in 43.1 innings) but at least he walks lots of hitters (26). Bubic is averaging 5.4 walks per nine innings.

Bubic has two starts this season where he didn’t get out of the first inning. But even though he’s 1-5 on the season, Kansas City is 5-7 in his 12 appearances. And he did pitch five scoreless innings against the Astros on June 4.

Bubic vs Verlander

1-5
Record
10-3
7.06
ERA
2.03
5.94
xERA
3.03
1.87
WHIP
0.83
1.42
SO/W Ratio
5.29

Returning from Tommy John surgery, Justin Verlander is right back in his usual place among the contenders in the AL Cy Young Award odds as the+295 second betting choice. The Astros right-hander is 4-1 in his last five starts. Verlander has allowed one earned run or less in seven of his past 10 starts. He’s lost twice since April 10.

Justin Verlander, after Tommy John surgery and almost 2 years of not pitching in MLB, is the first pitcher to 10 wins this season.

Wow. 🥹❤️ pic.twitter.com/NJY8cbFiMM

— Ben Verlander (@BenVerlander) June 29, 2022

Verlander leads the AL with 10 wins. He’s among the top 6% of big-league hurlers with a 2.34 wOBA and is in the top 8% in bases on balls percentage (4.6).

It’s his first start of the season against the Royals but Verlander has dominated Kansas City. In 45 career starts he’s 23-10 with a 3.20 ERA. He’s won more games against them than any MLB club.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Astros Batters
Batting Average vs Bubic
Royals Batters
Batting Average vs Verlander
Jose Altuve
.000
Andrew Benintendi
.083
Yordan Alvarez
1.000
Hunter Dozier
.000
Alex Bregman
.323
Cam Gallagher
.000
Mauricio Dubon
.000
Kyle Isbel
.000
Aledmys Diaz
.000
Nicky Lopez
.000
Yuli Gurriel
.000
MJ Melendez
.000
Korey Lee
.000
Whit Merrifield
.238
Martin Maldonado
.000
Ryan O’Hearn
.000
JJ Matijevic
.000
Edward Olivares
.000
Chas McCormick
.000
Vinnie Pasquantino
.000
Jake Meyers
.000
Emmanuel Rivera
.000
Jeremy Pena
.400
Michael A Taylor
.000
Kyle Tucker
.000
Bobby Witt Jr
.000

Houston’s Yordan Alvarez has only faced Bubic once but he’s a perfect 1-for-1 (1.000). Kyle Tucker is 1-for-2 (.500). Alex Bregman is 1-for-3 (.333).

Astros third baseman on Yordan Alvarez and his own surge at the plate. He’s slashing .357/.464/.625 in his last 16 games and team is 13-3 in that span. pic.twitter.com/OX1jwcjwnB

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) July 6, 2022

Whit Merrifield and Andrew Benintendi are the only Royals batters who’ve faced Verlander. Merrifield is batting .238 (5-for-21), while Benintendi is hitting .083 (1-for-12).

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Royals vs Astros Prediction

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, well you just gotta bet on that duck. You’ve got the Astros with Verlander on the hill facing both the team he’s owned throughout his career and the struggling Bubic.

Yordan Alvarez is unstoppable. #LevelUp #TogetherRoyal #Astros #Royals #MLB pic.twitter.com/ZlosvT49ab

— Baseball Today (@dailymlbtweets) July 6, 2022

Don’t overthink the play. This is a lopsided Astros victory screaming for a wager.

Pick: Houston Astros RL -1.5 (-155)

 

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Robert Duff

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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
NCAAF
NCAAB
Tennis

An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.

Author: Jesse Smith