Rockies vs Diamondbacks Odds, Picks & Predictions (Aug 6)

Rockies vs Diamondbacks Odds, Picks & Predictions (Aug 6)

Diamondbacks win celebration

Aug 2, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; The Arizona Diamondbacks celebrate a win over the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

The Rockies vs Diamondbacks odds favor Arizona as -155 moneyline favorites on Saturday, August 6, at 8:10pm ET
Colorado will give the ball to Antonio Senzatela (3-6, 4.87 ERA), while Arizona will counter with Merrill Kelly (10-5, 2.87 ERA)
Read below for the Rockies vs Diamondbacks odds, analysis and betting prediction

In terms of the NL playoff picture, Saturday’s matchup between the Colorado Rockies (47-61, 17-34 away) and Arizona Diamondbacks (46-58, 27-27 home) doesn’t mean a thing. However, it has caught our attention for a couple reasons in the betting market – more on that later.

These two teams enter play occupying the bottom-two spots in the NL West division, and oddsmakers have elected to side with the hometown team as the chalk.

Rockies vs Diamondbacks Odds

Team
Moneyline
Runline
Total
Colorado Rockies
+135
+1.5 (-150)
O 8 (-115)
Arizona Diamondbacks
-155
-1.5 (+130)
U 8 (-105)

Odds as of August 5th at Barstool Sportsbook

The Diamondbacks opened up as -155 moneyline favorites, in a game with a total of 8. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 pm ET at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, with clear skies and game-time temperatures  north of 100 degrees in the forecast.

Colorado vs Arizona Starting Pitchers

You won’t find either team anywhere near the top of the board in the World Series odds for good reason. Colorado and Arizona rank among the bottom-six teams in run differential, and both entered the weekend on multiple game losing streaks.

The D-Backs will turn to Merrill Kelly to stop the bleeding. The 33-year-old is enjoying a career season in Arizona and has been one of the lone bright spots of the starting rotation. He ranks top-25 in MLB in wins, ERA and WHIP, yielding two or fewer runs in six straight starts.

WHEELIN’ & DEALIN’ 🔥

Merrill Kelly is THE NL Pitcher of the Month! pic.twitter.com/rwrICGkRlE

— PHNX Diamondbacks (@PHNX_Dbacks) August 2, 2022

He went 4-0 in July, posting video game numbers along the way, and is fresh off shutting out the defending champion Braves over seven innings.

He’s completely dominated the Rockies so far this season, posting a 2-0 record in two starts, with a 1.15 ERA and a .214 opponent batting average. Surprisingly though, he’s getting zero attention in the NL Cy Young odds.

Senzatela vs Kelly Stats

3-6
Record
10-5
4.87
ERA
2.87
1.71
WHIP
1.13
.351
OBA
.223
2.4
SO/W Ratio
2.7

Colorado will counter with Antonio Senzatela, which must be music to Arizona’s ears. The 27-year-old has coughed up at least three runs in five straight starts and has been rocked by the Diamondbacks in the past.

#Dbacks 3 @ #Rockies 0 [T2-1o]:

Carson Kelly homers (2): fly ball to CF (solo)

Hit: 426ft, 103.3mph, 24°🚀

Pitch: 91.9mph Four-Seam Fastball (RHP Antonio Senzatela, 5)

— Home Run Tracker (@DingerTracker) July 2, 2022

Senzatela lasted just two innings in his only 2022 meeting with Arizona, allowing four hits, three runs and a homer. In 96 career at-bats, Diamondbacks hitters are batting .367 with a .668 slugging percentage and a 1.108 OPS versus the right-hander.

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Rockies vs Diamondbacks Betting Analysis

It’s not as if Arizona is an elite lineup by any metric. That just goes to show how underwhelming Senzatela has been. The Diamondbacks rank below league average in runs per game, while only Pittsburgh and Oakland boast a lower team batting average.

NL playoff chances, per Fangraphs:
Dodgers 100%
Mets 99.9%
Braves 98.7%
Brewers 89.7%
Padres 83.8%
Phillies 51%
Cardinals 49.9%
Giants 24%
Marlins 2.6%
Diamondbacks 0.2%
Cubs 0.1%
Nats, Pirates, Reds, Rockies 0.0%

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 29, 2022

The Diamondbacks are also bottom-11 in slugging percentage and OPS, but morph into a different team when playing the Rockies. They have an OPS that is .73 points higher versus Colorado compared to their season-long mark, and an OPS that is .97 points higher.

🔛☁️9️⃣#DbacksWin pic.twitter.com/d5O6KXXK0F

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) July 9, 2022

Colorado on the other hand, gives off the impression of a strong lineup on paper, until you break down the splits. The Rockies have a slash line of .284/.350/.455 at the friendly confines of Coors Field, but it’s been a different story on the road.

Colorado is batting just .235 away from home, averaging two and a half fewer runs per game (5.6 vs 3.1) than at home. To make matters worse, former 39-homer man Kris Bryant is on the IL with plantar fasciitis.

COL vs ARI Last 10 Meetings

Date
Away Team
Home Team
Score
7/10/22
Rockies
Diamondbacks
COL, 3-2
7/9/22
Rockies
Diamondbacks
ARI, 9-2
7/8/22
Rockies
Diamondbacks
COL, 6-5
7/7/22
Rockies
Diamondbacks
COL, 4-3
7/3/22
Diamondbacks
Rockies
COL, 6-5
7/2/22
Diamondbacks
Rockies
COL, 11-7
7/1/22
Diamondbacks
Rockies
ARI, 9-3
5/8/22
Rockies
Diamondbacks
ARI, 4-0
5/7/22
Rockies
Diamondbacks
COL, 4-1
5/6/22
Rockies
Diamondbacks
ARI, 4-1

Rockies vs Diamondbacks Pick

The Rockies have dropped seven of their past nine games on the road, getting outscored by 21 runs along the way. Let’s absolutely target Arizona on the moneyline, but let’s also fade Colorado in the team total market.

The Rockies team total currently sits at 3.5, a number they’ve failed to exceed in four of their past six road tilts, and in four of their last seven contests in Arizona.

Picks: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (-155), Colorado Rockies Under 3.5 Runs (-110)

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Chris Amberley

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As SBD’s resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he’d rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
Golf

As SBD’s resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he’d rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

Author: Jesse Smith