Phillies vs Reds Picks & Odds (Aug 15)

Phillies vs Reds Picks & Odds (Aug 15)

Alec Bohm throws out a runner

Aug 12, 2022; New York City, New York, USA; Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm (28) throws to first after fielding a ground ball by New York Mets right fielder Starling Marte (not pictured) with his bare hand during the sixth inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies vs Reds odds favor Philadelphia as -175 moneyline favorites on Monday, August 15, at 6:40pm ET
Philadelphia will give the ball to Noah Syndergaard (6-8, 3.96 ERA), while Cincinnati will counter with Mike Minor (1-9, 6.24 ERA)
Read below for the Phillies vs Reds odds and betting prediction

If the Philadelphia Phillies (63-51, 31-25 away) are going to hold on to the final Wild Card spot in the National League they’re going to have to start scoring a lot more runs. Easier said than done when your top-two sluggers are out of the lineup – more on that later.

Philly is fresh off scoring just two runs total in a three-game weekend set versus the New York Mets, and will look to get the bats going again on Monday against the Cincinnati Reds (46-68, 25-34 home)

Phillies vs Reds Odds

Team
Moneyline
Runline
Total
Philadelphia Phillies
-175
-1.5 (-110)
Ov 9.5 (+100)
Cincinnati Reds
+150
+1.5 (-110)
Un 9.5 (-120)

Odds as of August 14 at at Caesars Sportsbook. See available Caesars Sportsbook bonus code.

 

 

Oddsmakers are expecting a Phillies bounce back, as Philadelphia is currently a -175 favorite over Cincy, in a game with total of 9.5. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm ET at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, with clear skies and 79 degree temperatures in the forecast.

Philadelphia vs Cincinnati Probable Pitchers

The Phillies will give the ball to newcomer Noah Syndergaard. The 29-year-old has been a mixed bag since joining Philly at the deadline, yielding 17 hits and six runs over 11 innings, while striking out six.

2 Ks for Noah Syndergaard in the 5th pic.twitter.com/5MdfciRJyE

— Brodes Media (@BrodesMedia) August 11, 2022

Syndergaard will make his 18th start of the season overall, his most since the 2019 campaign. He’s on pace for his lowest strikeout rate since entering the big leagues, but he’s done a much better job keeping the ball in the park. His home run rate per 9 innings is just 0.89 in 2022, the lowest it’s been since 2018.

Syndergaard had an up and down tenure with the LA Angels before joining Philly. He held enemy hitters to two runs or less in nine of 15 outings, but recorded only five quality starts. He’s got virtually no history against this version of the Reds lineup, but as we’ll explore they’re not exactly one to fear.

Syndergaard vs Minor Stats

6-8
Record
1-9
3.96
ERA
6.24
1.27
WHIP
1.56
.256
OBA
.276
2.9
SO/W Ratio
1.9

Cincy will counter with Mike Minor, who’s been one of the most beatable starting pitchers in baseball. The southpaw boasts a 1-9 record this season and hasn’t won in his last nine starts.

Last time out, the Mets shelled him for four runs and two homers over 5.1 innings marking the eighth time in 12 starts this season he’s allowed at least that many runs.

I will never understand the acquisition of Mike Minor for the 2022 Cincinnati Reds.

— Doug Gray (@dougdirt24) August 10, 2022

Minor has yet to face the Phillies this season and like Syndergaard has little experience versus this year’s version of his opponent’s lineup.

Phillies vs Reds Betting Trends

If there was ever a time to catch the Philadelphia lineup, now would be it. The Phillies are a top-10 World Series odds contender, in large part due to their offense. The bats have been quiet recently however, as they’ve been shutout in three of their past four games.

They’ve gone 2-for-28 over that span with runners in scoring position, while averaging just over eight hits per outing. In addition to losing last year’s NL MVP Bryce Harper, the team is also playing without slugger Kyle Schwarber.

thinking about Kyle Schwarber hitting a 441 foot opposite field homer today. pic.twitter.com/B3bgFcBx6g

— Absolutely Hammered (@AH_Pod) July 31, 2022

The NL home run leader and longshot NL MVP odds contender is nursing a strained calf and his status for Monday is up in the air.

The Reds lineup on the other hand, exploded for eight runs on Sunday, their most in a game since July 30th. Despite the outburst expectations should be tempered for Monday’s outing.

They’d scored two runs or less in each of their previous five games, and are batting .216 over the past week. They also have a tougher time versus righties like Syndergaard than lefties, posting an OPS that is .33 points lower.

PHI vs CIN Last 10 Meetings

Date
Away Team
Home Team
Score
8/15/21
Reds
Phillies
CIN, 7-4
8/14/21
Reds
Phillies
PHI, 6-1
8/13/21
Reds
Phillies
CIN, 6-1
6/28/21
Phillies
Reds
PHI, 12-4
6/1/21
Phillies
Reds
PHI, 17-3
5/31/21
Phillies
Reds
CIN, 11-1
9/5/19
Phillies
Reds
CIN, 4-3
9/4/19
Phillies
Reds
CIN, 8-5
9/3/19
Phillies
Reds
PHI, 6-2
9/2/19
Phillies
Reds
PHI, 7-1

Phillies vs Reds Pick

Given how poorly Minor has pitched this season the Phillies can definitely find success against the lefty even without their top-two bats. I wouldn’t pencil in a six or seven run performance, but they certainly won’t be held off the scoresheet again.

There should be a little less optimism for the Reds. Cincy is below average in runs scored per game, and ranks bottom-six in slugging and OPS. Just three of the Reds last 13 games have exceeded the total, while Cincy has scored three runs or fewer in nine of 12 August contests.

Pick: Under 9.5 Runs (-120)

 

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Chris Amberley

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As SBD’s resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he’d rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
Golf

As SBD’s resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he’d rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

Author: Jesse Smith