Most Rushing Touchdown Odds; Are Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry the Best Bets?

Most Rushing Touchdown Odds; Are Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry the Best Bets?

NFL rushing touchdown odds

Jan 2, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) in the second half against the Las Vegas Raiders at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts is the +450 favorite to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns during the 2022-23 season
Tennessee Titans back Derrick Henry is the second betting choice at +650
Joe Mixon (+900) of the Cincinnati Bengals is the only other running back given odds shorter than +1000

The oddsmakers are sticking with the tried and true formula when it comes to projecting who will be the leader in NFL rushing touchdowns this season.

Jonathan Taylor is the +450 favorite in this betting prop. The Indianapolis Colts running back topped all runners last season, rushing for a league-leading 18 touchdowns.

Next at a betting line of +650 is Derrick Henry from the Tennessee Titans. He was the 2020 leader with 17 rushing touchdowns.

At +900, Cincinnati Bengals back Joe Mixon is the only other NFL runner given odds that are shorter than +1000.

2022 NFL Rushing Touchdown Odds

Player (Team)
Odds
Jonathan Taylor (Colts)
+450
Derrick Henry (Titans)
+650
Joe Mixon (Bengals)
+900
Dalvin Cook (Vikings)
+1000
Nick Chubb (Browns)
+1000
Najee Harris (Steelers)
+1400
James Conner (Cardinals)
+1400
Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys)
+1600
Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers)
+1600
Damien Harris (Patriots)
+1600
Christian McCaffrey (Panthers)
+1800
Austin Ekeler (Chargers)
+1800
JK Dobbins (Ravens)
+2000
Cam Akers (Rams)
+2000
Javonte Williams (Broncos)
+2000
Jalen Hurts (Eagles)
+2000
Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
+2500
Josh Jacobs (Raiders)
+2500
D’Andre Swift (Lions)
+3000
Saquon Barkley (Giants)
+3000
Aaron Jones (Packers)
+3000
Elijah Mitchell (49ers)
+3000
David Montgomery (Bears)
+3000
Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
+3000
Josh Allen (Bills)
+3000
Breece Hall (Jets)
+3000
Antonio Gibson (Commanders)
+3000
Chase Edmonds (Cardinals)
+4000
Travis Etienne (Jaguars)
+4000
AJ Dillon (Packers)
+4000
Devin Singletary (Bills)
+4000
Trey Lance (49ers)
+5000
Deebo Samuel (49ers)
+5000
Rashaad Penny (Seahawks)
+5000
Miles Sanders (Eagles)
+5000
Melvin Gordon (Broncos)
+5000
Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks)
+6000
Kareem Hunt (Browns)
+6500
Alvin Kamara (Saints)
+6500
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs)
+6500
Tyler Allgaier (Falcons)
+8000
Tony Pollard (Cowboys)
+8000
Brian Robinson Jr (Commanders)
+8000
Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)
+8000
Marlon Mack (Texans)
+8000

Odds as of August 11th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Use this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code before wagering

 

At an NFL betting line of +450, Taylor is given an implied probability of 18.18%. Bet $10 on Taylor and if the Colts back is rushing for the most touchdowns in the NFL this season, the payout will be $55.00.

Is Jonathan Taylor-Made to Repeat?

In most cases when it comes to NFL skill position props, betting a player to come up with a repeat performance will only lead to sorrow. However, that’s certainly not the case when it comes to rushing touchdowns leaders.

Henry was the champion in 2019 and 2020. Todd Gurley of the Los Angeles Rams repeated in 2017 and 2018. Since 1990, back-to-back wins happened on four other occasions.

Matt Ryan’s press conference got drowned out at one point by kids screaming for Jonathan Taylor autographs.

It’s 2022, and the Colts just traded for an MVP QB, but a running back is still the superstar of their offense.

— Nate Atkins (@NateAtkins_) August 2, 2022

That being the case, is Taylor worth a look to come through for the second year in a row? Well, as a matter of fact, yes he is.

Adding veteran passer Matt Ryan to run the Indianapolis offense should open up the Colts’ attack. If Ryan gets the ball moving through the air like he’s capable of doing, there could be ample opportunity for Taylor to run to daylight – and to the house – during the 2022-23 season.

Henry Looking to Bounce Back

After successive spectacular seasons, a foot injury punted Henry to the sideline for much of last season. He’ll be seeking a big comeback season.

That means in your NFL future bets, Henry just might be a solid play in NFL CPOY odds. However, banking on him to return to his championship form in pursuit of the rushing touchdowns title could prove foolhardy.

Recent NFL Rushing Touchdown Leaders

Season
Player (Team)
TD Receptions
2021
Jonathan Taylor (Colts)
18
2020
Derrick Henry (Titans)
17
2019
Derrick Henry (Titans)
16
2019
Aaron Jones (Packers)
16
2018
Todd Gurley (Rams)
17
2017
Todd Gurley (Rams)
13

While eight players since 1996 have managed to assemble two titles when it comes to the NFL rushing touchdowns crown, Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson is the only player to earn a trio of seasons in the lead.

Derrick Henry is willing to put the team on his back. 😤 pic.twitter.com/jimQOfkQOO

— theScore (@theScore) August 9, 2022

Minus AJ Brown as a receiving target for Titans QB Ryan Tannehill, it’s going to be even tougher to move the ball and get into red zone opportunities. That figures to limit Henry’s chances at the end zone.

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Can These Guys Stay Healthy?

There’s a trio of value bets who could enter your NFL betting strategies if they can stay on the field long enough to find the end zone.

Nick Chubb was second in the NFL in rushing last season with 1,259 yards. The Cleveland Browns back also has eight rushing touchdowns in 14 years. In 2020, Chubb ran for 12 TDs in 12 games.

Feel like Dalvin Cook doesn’t always get the respect he deserves 💨 pic.twitter.com/vBRiPs6a5l

— KEST (@AdamKester_) August 10, 2022

Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook has never played more than 14 games in a single season. But he’s had rushing touchdown seasons of 13 (2019) and 16 (2020) in recent years. Imagine what he might be capable of scoring were he healthy for all 17 games?

There’s intrigue in what the New York Giants offense might look like under offensive guru Brian Daboll. That could mean ample opportunities for success coming to 2018 NFL rookie of the year Saquon Barkley should he stay away from ailments. Barkley scored 11 rushing touchdowns while playing all 16 games in 2018. He’s missed 21 games over the three seasons since.

It’s Taylor’s Title

The combination of Taylor’s spectacular lateral movement, Indy’s dominant offensive line and Ryan’s adeptness at running play action will make Taylor the most dangerous threat out of the backfield in the NFL. He’s going to be a legitimate contender in the NFL MVP odds.

Through his first 2 seasons in the NFL, Jonathan Taylor has averaged 1.03 TDs scored per game 🤯🤯🤯

— Ben Bowman (@FFWMF_Pod) August 8, 2022

Also, the favorite to lead the NFL in rushing yardage, Taylor is going to hit paydirt an awful lot. More than any other back, in fact. Take him to top the NFL in rushing touchdowns.

Pick: Jonathan Taylor (Colts) +450

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Robert Duff

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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
NCAAF
NCAAB
Tennis

An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.

Author: Jesse Smith