Most Quarterback Passing Touchdown Odds; Are Herbert and Allen the Best Bets?

Most Quarterback Passing Touchdown Odds; Are Herbert and Allen the Best Bets?

NFL Touchdown passing odds

Aug 1, 2022; Costa Mesa, CA, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws the ball during training camp at the Jack Hammett Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers is the +550 favorite to be the quarterback leading the NFL in touchdown passes in 2022
Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills is the second betting choice at +600
Bettors can access a +650 betting line on reigning TD passing champion Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

One thing has been a constant over the past decade when it comes to the quarterback passing touchdown leader. That constant would be change.

You have to go back to 2011-12 and Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints to find a QB leading the league in this category two years in a row. In fact, it’s only happened twice in a quarter century and both times, Brees was the guy who did it.

That being the case, the best NFL betting strategies would include looking away from last year’s winner in search of the 2022 NFL passing touchdown champion. It was Tom Brady, by the way. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ QB threw for 43 scores.

This year, oddsmakers are leaning away from the senior members of the fraternity and looking to two relative newcomers to lead the way. Third-year Los Angeles Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert is the betting favorite in this player prop at +550. Following him closely is Josh Allen at +600. Just 26, Allen is entering his fifth season at the helm of the Buffalo Bills.

2022 NFL Quarterback Passing Touchdown Odds

Player (Team)
Odds
Justin Herbert (Chargers)
+550
Josh Allen (Bills)
+600
Tom Brady (Buccaneers)
+650
Joe Burrow (Bengals)
+900
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)
+900
Matthew Stafford (Rams)
+900
Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
+1000
Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
+1400
Russell Wilson (Broncos)
+1600
Derek Carr (Raiders)
+1800
Kirk Cousins (Vikings)
+2000
Deshaun Watson (Browns)
+3000
Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)
+4000
Jameis Winston (Saints)
+4000
Matt Ryan (Colts)
+4000
Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
+4000
Jalen Hurts (Eagles)
+5000
Ryan Tannehill (Titans)
+5000
Daniel Jones (Giants)
+5000
Mac Jones (Patriots)
+5000
Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
+6000
Jared Goff (Lions)
+6000
Baker Mayfield (Panthers)
+6000
Zach Wilson (Jets)
+6500
Carson Wentz (Commanders)
+6500
Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars)
+7000
Jacoby Brissett (Browns)
+8000
Justin Fields (Bears)
+10000
Trey Lance (49ers)
+10000
Geno Smith (Seahawks)
+10000
Mitchell Trubisky (Steelers)
+10000
Drew Lock (Seahawks)
+10000
Davis Mills (Texans)
+10000
Marcus Mariota (Falcons)
+10000
Kenny Pickett (Steelers)
+15000
Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers)
+15000
Desmond Ridder (Falcons)
+20000
Sam Darnold (Panthers)
+25000
Malik Willis (Titans)
+25000
Matt Corral (Panthers)
+30000

Odds as of August 8th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Use this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code before wagering

 

Defending champion Brady is the third betting choice at +650.

At odds of +550, the favored Herbert is offering an implied probability of 15.38%. Bet $10 on Herbert and if he finishes the season as the leader, the payout on that wager will be $65.00.

Herbert Growing Into Role

As a rookie quarterback in 2020, Herbert threw for 31 TDs. Last season, he found receivers for 38 touchdown passes.

🚨 JUSTIN HERBERT EMERGENCY BROADCAST ALERT 🚨 pic.twitter.com/ukFg5kkLHR

— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) July 27, 2022

That was an increase in TD passing output of 18.42%. Anticipating another increase of the same amount would bring Herbert to 49 TD passes this season. That number would’ve led the NFL in all but three seasons in league history.

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Allen a Two-Dimensional Touchdown Threat

In NFL futures bets, Allen is the betting favorite in the NFL MVP odds. Along with the aerial route, Allen can find the end zone frequently with his feet. While that’s great if he’s your fantasy football quarterback, it might not be such an advantage if you’ve bet him to lead the NFL in TD passing.

Josh Allen threw that ball PERFECT pic.twitter.com/dcm5QEgBYb

— Built in Buffalo (@BuiltInBuffalo_) August 7, 2022

In fact, in four seasons as an NFL starter, Allen’s best season in terms of touchdown passes is 37. Over the past 10 years, that would’ve only been good enough to lead the NFL three times.

Brady a Bad Investment

Last season was the fifth time Brady topped the NFL in touchdown passes. However, he’s never done it two years in a row.

Number of times Tom Brady has ranked in the top 10 during the regular season

Pass yards: 18x
Pass TD: 17x
Pass 1st downs: 18x
Passer rating: 17x
ANY/A: 16x
Pass DYAR: 18x
Pass DVOA: 15x
Total EPA: 16x
EPA/play: 16x
Total QBR: 13x (since 06)
PFF Grade: 15x (since 06)

— Tom Brady Facts (@TB_Facts) August 7, 2022

Brady is one of just three QBs in NFL history to pass for at least 50 TDs in a single season. However, his leading total in 2002 of 28 TD passes is the lowest number to lead the league over the past 30 years.

Searching for Quarterback Value

Russell Wilson led the NFL with 34 TD passes for Seattle in 2017. Could his move to Denver ignite another league-leading campaign for the veteran quarterback? Unlikely. Wilson’s passed for as many as 40 TDs just once during his NFL career.

New year. New team. Same goal. #ColtsCamp pic.twitter.com/dTuf7MgiXf

— Matt Ryan (@M_Ryan02) July 29, 2022

Matt Ryan is falling into a potentially profitable situation with the Colts. However, even during his halcyon days in Atlanta, Ryan has never led the NFL in TD passes.

It’s Justin’s Time

The theory in pro sports is that the third season is when a quarterback really ignites their potential and turns it into spectacular results.

Recent NFL Quarterback Passing Touchdown Winners

Season
Player (Team)
TD Passes
2021
Tom Brady (Buccaneers)
43
2020
Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
48
2019
Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
36
2018
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)
50
2017
Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
34

That being the case, it’s going to be hard to bet against Herbert being the quarterback who is leading the NFL in TD passing.

justin herbert has never even heard of justin herbert pic.twitter.com/OvNv7yfP8H

— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) July 27, 2022

At 4,600.5 yards, Herbert is also given the highest passing yardage prop total in the NFL for 2022.

Pick: Justin Herbert (Chargers) +550

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Robert Duff

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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
NCAAF
NCAAB
Tennis

An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.

Author: Jesse Smith