Mets vs Cubs Picks & Odds (July 16)

Mets vs Cubs Picks & Odds (July 16)

Pete Alonso home run celebration

Jul 14, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) celebrates with coaching staff after hitting a two-run home run against the Chicago Cubs during the eight inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets vs Cubs odds favor New York as -140 moneyline favorites on Saturday (July 16, 2:20pm ET) in Game 1 of a doubleheader
New York will send Taijuan Walker (7-2, 2.63 ERA) to the mound in the first game, while Chicago will counter with Marcus Stroman (2-5, 4.91 ERA)
Read below for the Mets vs Cubs odds, analysis and betting prediction

Friday’s Mets-Cubs contest was postponed due to heavy rain meaning the clubs will now play a double-header on Saturday.

New York opened up the four-game set by pounding Chicago 8-0 on Thursday, extending the Cubs losing streak to seven games. Oddsmakers don’t expect Chicago’s bleeding to stop on Saturday, as the Mets opened up as the road chalk.

Mets vs Cubs Odds

Team
Moneyline
Runline
Total
New York Mets
-140
OFF
OFF
Chicago Cubs
+120
OFF
OFF

Odds as of July 15th at Caesars Sportsbook. See available Caesars Sportsbook promo code 

New York is currently a -140 moneyline favorite in a game with a total a total as of Friday night. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 pm ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL, with clear skies and 79 degree game-time temperatures in the forecast.

New York vs Chicago Starting Pitchers

The Mets, who boast one of the four shortest prices in the World Series odds, will give the ball to Taijuan Walker. The 29-year-old is in the midst of a career year and is fresh off delivering one of the best performances of his season.

7 SCORELESS INNINGS FOR TAIJUAN WALKER 😤 pic.twitter.com/QzRhhtPoPc

— SNY (@SNYtv) July 10, 2022

Walker shutout Miami on Sunday over seven innings, scattering three hits while striking out seven. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in 13 of his 15 starts, and has yielded just three runs total over his past 20.1 innings.

Dating back to June 12th, Walker is 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA, a 54% ground ball rate and a 43-to-8 strikeout-to-walk rate. Not bad for a guy who profiled as the Mets fourth or fifth starter at the start of the season.

Walker vs Stroman

7-2
Record
2-5
2.63
ERA
4.91
1.10
WHIP
1.19
.225
OBA
.242
3.0
SO/W Ratio
3.7

The Cubs, who have seen their MLB divisional odds crater all the way to +25000, will counter with former Met Marcus Stroman. The 31-year-old is off to an underwhelming start to his Chicago career, posting just two wins and a 4.91 ERA in 10 starts.

4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 K for @STR0 in his return! pic.twitter.com/3QhqvWJLVY

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 10, 2022

Stroman pitched very well last week in his return from the COVID list after a month long absence, throwing four scoreless innings of two hit against the Dodgers. It was a far cry from his previous start before his illness, as he coughed up 10 hits and nine runs to St. Louis.

Opponent hitters are slugging .419 against him so far, which is the second highest mark he’s ever yielded. A big reason for that is his career worst fly ball rate, which is especially problematic at home when the wind is blowing out.

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Mets vs Cubs Betting Analysis

If you like offense it must be hard to be a Cubs fan these days. Chicago was shut out for the fourth time this season on Thursday and managed to get just one runner past first base during the first 8 innings. They’ve now scored only three runs total in their past three outings.

They’re batting just .200, with a .251 OBP over the past week, while averaging 2.8 runs per game. They’ve crossed the plate two times or less in three of their past four games, and three times or less in seven of eight.

New York meanwhile, is a much more potent lineup in large part thanks to top-two NL MVP odds contender Pete Alonso. MLB’s leader in RBI went deep again on Thursday, giving him 24 homers in 89 games.

Pete Alonso’s ready for the Home Run Derby! pic.twitter.com/4rgB6u3tqT

— SNY (@SNYtv) July 15, 2022

The Mets won for the third time in four games on Thursday, improving their road record to a sizzling 28-19. The eight run outburst gives New York’s lineup 15 runs in the past two contests, but this team is by no means a one trick pony.

Mets hurlers have been exceeding expectations all season, even with stud starters Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom absent for much of the year. New York’s starting rotation is 7-3 in July, with a 2.55 ERA in 14 starts. Overall, the Mets boasts the seventh lowest ERA in MLB and the second most strikeouts.

NYM vs CHC Last 10 Meetings

Date
Away Team
Home Team
Score
7/14/22
Mets
Cubs
NYM, 8-0
6/17/21
Cubs
Mets
CHC, 2-0
6/16/21
Cubs
Mets
NYM, 6-3
6/15/21
Cubs
Mets
NYM, 3-2
6/14/21
Cubs
Mets
NYM, 5-2
4/22/21
Mets
Cubs
CHC, 4-3
4/21/21
Mets
Cubs
CHC, 16-4
4/20/21
Mets
Cubs
CHC, 3-1
8/29/19
Cubs
Mets
CHC, 4-1
8/28/19
Cubs
Mets
CHC, 10-7

Mets vs Cubs Pick

With Walker on the mound, expect the Cubs power outage to continue. In fact, with Scherzer set to start the nightcap, Chicago hitters are going to have a tough time crossing the plate at all on Saturday.

Not only have the Mets starters been pitching phenomenally this season, the relievers have as well. New York’s bullpen ranks top-10 in ERA, and top-three in K/9 and strand rate.

Cubs relievers meanwhile, rank bottom-nine in strand rate and 26th in ERA. Chicago has allowed 47 runs while losing seven straight, and there shouldn’t be much optimism that they can win either game on Saturday.

Pick: New York Mets Moneyline (-140)

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Chris Amberley

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As SBD’s resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he’d rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
Golf

As SBD’s resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he’d rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

Author: Jesse Smith