Kupp & Chase Co-Favored to Finish With Most NFL Receiving TDs

Kupp & Chase Co-Favored to Finish With Most NFL Receiving TDs

NFL receiving TDs odds

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (1) turns downfield after completing a catch during Cincinnati Bengals training camp practice, Monday, Aug. 1, 2022, at the practice fields next to Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati.

Cincinnati Bengals Training Camp Aug 1 0056

Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles Rams and Ja’Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals are the +500 co-betting favorites to lead the NFL in receiving TDs during the 2022 season
Kupp caught a league-leading 16 passes for TDs last season
Since 2008, 20 different players have grabbed at least a share of the NFL lead in TD catches

If there’s one constant when it comes to the NFL leader in receiving TDs, it’s change. Not only is it rare for a champ to defend his title in this statistical category, it’s almost as rare for a player to lead in receiving TDs twice during their NFL careers.

In fact, there isn’t a single active receiver in the NFL who’s led the league in TD catches more than once. The most recent player to do so, two-time winner Larry Fitzgerald, played his last NFL season in 2020.

What does this all mean? Well, perhaps you should immediately rule out all active players who were past leaders from your NFL betting strategies.

However, oddsmakers aren’t doing so. Last season’s leader, Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles Rams, is the co-betting favorite to repeat as the NFL leader in receiving TDs along with Ja’Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals.

2022 NFL Receiving TDs Odds

Player (Team)
Odds
Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals)
+500
Cooper Kupp (Rams)
+500
Mike Evans (Buccaneers)
+700
Davante Adams (Raiders)
+750
Justin Jefferson (Vikings)
+900
Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
+1200
Stefon Diggs (Bills)
+1400
CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys)
+1400
Mark Andrews (Ravens)
+1600
Gabriel Davis (Bills)
+1600
Tyreek Hill (Dolphins)
+1600
Tee Higgins (Bengals)
+1800
Deebo Samuel (49ers)
+1800
Keenan Allen (Chargers)
+2000
Jerry Jeudy (Broncos)
+2200
Mike Williams (Chargers)
+2500
Michael Pittman Jr (Colts)
+2500
Juju Smith-Schuster (Chiefs)
+2500
Allen Robinson II (Rams)
+2500
Adam Thielen (Vikings)
+2500
AJ Brown (Eagles)
+2500
Terry McLaurin (Commanders)
+2800
Marquise Brown (Cardinals)
+2800
DK Metcalf (Seahawks)
+3000
Diontae Johnson (Steelers)
+3000
Amari Cooper (Browns)
+3000
Hunter Renfrow (Raiders)
+3500
Russell Gage (Buccaneers)
+4000
Michael Thomas (Saints)
+4000
Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins)
+4000
DJ Moore (Panthers)
+4000
Darren Waller (Raiders)
+4000
Darnell Mooney (Bears)
+4000
Dalton Schultz (Cowboys)
+4000
Courtland Sutton (Broncos)
+4000
Chris Godwin (Buccaneers)
+4000
Allen Lazard (Packers)
+4500
Robert Tonyan (Packers)
+5000
Rashod Bateman (Ravens)
+5000
Michael Gallup (Cowboys)
+5000
Kyle Pitts (Falcons)
+5000
Hunter Henry (Patriots)
+5000
Elijah Moore (Jets)
+5000
Devonta Smith (Eagles)
+5000
DeAndre Hopkins (Cardinals)
+5000
Dawson Knox (Bills)
+5000
Tyler Lockett (Seahawks)
+5000
Christian Kirk (Jaguars)
+5000
Brandin Cooks (Texans)
+5000
Austin Ekeler (Chargers)
+5000

Odds as of August 9th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Use this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code before wagering

 

Davante Adams, the 2020 receiving TDs leader with the Green Bay Packers, is the +750 fourth betting choice in this market. He’ll be playing for the Las Vegas Raiders in 2022.

Fitzgerald, in 2008-09, was the last receiver to lead in TD catches in successive seasons.

At odds of +500, co-favorites Kupp and Chase are offering an implied probability of 16.67%. Bet $10 on either of them and if they finish the season as the leader, would return a payout on that wager of $60.00.

Kupp Won’t Runneth Away Again

In what can only be described as a once-in-a-career year, Kupp turned the NFL receiving trifecta. He led the league in overall receptions, TD receptions, and receiving yardage. Kupp drew strong consideration in the NFL MVP odds.

You rocking with @CooperKupp’s top five WRs? ?

1️⃣ Davante Adams
2️⃣ Justin Jefferson
3️⃣ Stefon Diggs
4️⃣ Ja’Marr Chase
5️⃣ Odell Beckham Jr.

(via @IAMATHLETEpod) pic.twitter.com/kM0SByc3lB

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) August 7, 2022

The chances of that happening two years in a row are less than remote. And as noted above, Kupp will be needing to defy plenty of NFL history in order to lead in receiving TDs two seasons in a row.

Recent NFL Receiving TDs Leaders

Season
Player (Team)
TD Receptions
2021
Cooper Kupp (Rams)
16
2020
Davante Adams (Packers)
18
2019
Kenny Golladay (Lions)
11
2018
Antonio Brown (Steelers)
15
2017
DeAndre Hopkins (Texans)
13

Maybe keep an eye on Kupp’s new Rams teammate Allen Robinson. He led the NFL in receiving TDs with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2015. Rams QB Matthew Stafford has passed to three receivers who led the NFL in TD catches.

Can Chase Avoid Sophomore Jinx?

Chase was a rookie sensation with the Bengals last season. Like Kupp, can he repeat that level of performance?

Ja’Marr Chase told me he worked out with Chad Johnson in the offseason.

“We talk about routes and stuff like that. He tells me what I’m good at and what I can work on.”

Said he’s put an emphasis on having that relationship with Chad.#Bengals @fox19

— Jeremy Rauch (@FOX19Jeremy) August 7, 2022

The Bengals snuck up on a lot of teams last season. After winning the AFC Championship Game and going to the Super Bowl, look for a regression in Cincinnati that could impact everyone.

Jefferson Offering Value

Chase’s LSU teammate Justin Jefferson has taken an uptick in both of his seasons with the Minnesota Vikings. His catches went from 88 as a rookie to 108 last season. Meanwhile, his receiving TDs increased from seven to 10.

Justin Jefferson cooking Patrick Peterson on an out route: pic.twitter.com/wDP8oeX3RJ

— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) August 5, 2022

Jefferson led the NFL with 14.3 yards per touch last season. The Vikings figure to take another step forward as a team this season with a deeper roster and better coaching staff.

Jefferson could be a big benefactor of that improvement. The offense is being tweaked to allow Jefferson to freestyle in a similar fashion to what the Rams did last season with Kupp.

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Keep An Eye On Pittman

Michael Pittman Jr of the Indianapolis Colts made a quantum leap as a sophomore in 2021 as well. He went from 40 catches to 88 and from one TD catch to six.

Michael Pittman Jr. was an absolute dog last year against single-man coverage, creating a step or more of separation on 66% of his opportunities.

Only Mike Evans (73%) and Keenan Allen (67%) finished higher.

Room to grow — only targeted 28% v s-man while other leaders saw 40%+

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) August 3, 2022

He’ll be getting on the end of passes from future Hall of Famer Matt Ryan this season and could be in for a major breakout campaign.

Pick: Justin Jefferson (Vikings) +900

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Robert Duff

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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
NCAAF
NCAAB
Tennis

An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.

Author: Jesse Smith