Guardians vs Tigers Odds & Picks (July 4)

Guardians vs Tigers Odds & Picks (July 4)

Guardians vs Tigers odds

May 29, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) steals second on the throw to Detroit Tigers shortstop Javier Baez (28) in the eighth inning at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The Cleveland Guardians are -140 road favorites over the Detroit Tigers in an American League afternoon game slated for Monday, July 4
It’s the first game of a day-night twinbill
The Guardians vs Tigers odds and best bets are analyzed in the following story

The Detroit Tigers (30-47, 19-24 home) own a winning record (3-2) against the Cleveland Guardians (40-36 , 20-19 away) this season and that’s saying something. Winning and the Tigers are two words not often found together in the same sentence this season.

Only two American League teams show a worse record than Detroit’s 30-47 slate. However, the 19-24 home mark fashioned by the Tigers is better than five other AL clubs.

Cleveland, though, is among three AL Central teams with winning road records and oddsmakers are listing the Guardians as -140 away favorites in the opener of a doubleheader against Detroit. Cleveland is an impressive 10-3 straight up as a road favorite this season.

First pitch at Comerica Park is set for 1:10pm ET on Monday, July 4. Clear skies with 11 mph wind and a temperature of 87 degrees are in the weather forecast.

Guardians vs Tigers Odds

Team
Moneyline
Runline
Total
Cleveland Guardians
-140
-1.5 (+122)
O 8.5 (-110)
Detroit Tigers
+118
+1.5 (-145)
U 8.5 (-110)

Odds as of July 3 at Caesars Sportsbook. See available Caesars Sportsbook promo codes. 

 

 

At odds of -140, the Guardians are offering an implied probability of victory of 58.33% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on Cleveland would deliver a payout of $17.10.

The MLB betting trends show that in the AL Division odds, Cleveland is +1300 to win the AL Central. Detroit is +8000 to win the AL Central. The MLB pennant odds show the Guardians at +3000 and the Tigers at +80000 to win the AL flag. Cleveland is at +8000  and Detroit is +100000 to win it all in the World Series odds.

Cleveland vs Detroit Probable Pitchers

Guardians right-hander Zach Plesac has one win over his last 11 starts dating back to April 22. He’s been a hard-luck pitcher of late. In his last three starts, Plesac is 0-1 despite posting a 1.00 ERA over that span.

Plesac’s analytics are not good. Among MLB hurlers, he’s in the bottom 3% in xSLG (.569), the bottom 4% in xBA (.305) and the bottom 5% in xERA (5.95), xwOBA (.389) and xwOBAcon (.447).

Zach Plesac in 5 starts against the AL Central in 2022, is 1-1 with a 2.05 ERA, and 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio, give him some run support and I feel confident about tomorrow’s doubleheader #ForTheLand

— Sachiko?????‍♂️(40-36) (@716sachiko) June 28, 2022

Plesac is 1-3 with a 4.93 ERA in seven road starts. He’s 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA in seven career starts against Detroit. At Comerica Park, Plesac is 2-1 with a 1.69 ERA in three starts.

Plesac vs Hill

2-5
Record
0-0
3.86
ERA
0.00
5.95
xERA
0.00
1.22
WHIP
0.00
2.85
SO/W Ratio
0.00

With Rony Garcia going on the IL, the Tigers selected the contract of right-hander Garrett Hill from the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens. Hill, 26, gets the start in the opener of the twinbill and will be making his MLB debut.

Garrett Hill will make his MLB debut as Tigers starter for Game 1 of Monday’s doubleheader vs. Cleveland. He’ll make at least 3 turns in rotation before Tigers reassess their pitching situation at All-Star break.

— Jason Beck (@beckjason) July 3, 2022

Rated the 21st-best prospect in the Detroit system by Baseball America, Hill shows a 4.06 ERA at Toledo to go with a 28.7% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate and 32.6% ground ball rate.

Combined with his numbers at Double-A Erie, Hill has struck out 98 batters in 69 innings pitched. Hill will be the fifth pitcher to make his MLB debut with the Tigers this season.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Tigers Batters
Batting Average vs Plesac
Guardians Batters
Batting Average vs Hill
Tucker Barnhart
.000
Gabriel Arias
.000
Javier Baez
.000
Ernie Clement
.000
Miguel Cabrera
.143
Andres Gimenez
.000
Jeimer Candelario
.231
Steven Kwan
.000
Harold Castro
.111
Sandy Leon
.000
Willi Castro
.400
Luke Maille
.000
Kody Clemens
.000
Owen Miller
.000
Riley Greene
.000
Josh Naylor
.000
Robbie Grossman
.250
Richie Palacios
.000
Eric Haase
.200
Jose Ramirez
.000
Victor Reyes
.429
Franmil Reyes
.000
Jonathan Schoop
.000
Amed Rosario
.000
Spencer Torkelson
.000
Myles Straw
.000

Detroit’s Victor Reyes is 3-for-7 (.429) when facing Plesac. Willi Castro is 4-for-10 (.400) with an RBI. Eric Haase is only 1-for-5 against Pleasc but that one hit was a solo homer.

Since this is Hill’s MLB debut, no Cleveland batter has faced him before.

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Guardians vs Tigers Prediction

Plesac has been solid this year against AL Central opponents and historically dominant against Detroit. However, this is Cleveland’s third doubleheader in six days. The Guardians are 1-3 in the previous four games. Overall, Cleveland is 4-8 SU over the past 12 games.

[email protected]_Mole_13 looking ? #ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/ZxH4FXYsMo

— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) July 3, 2022

Hill wasn’t nearly as dominant with Toledo as he was with Erie. Another step up baseball’s ladder figures to have similar impact on his ability as he seeks to get big-league hitters out for the first time.

Detroit is 4-7 SU over the past 11 games and 4-9 through the past 13 home games.

Pick: Cleveland Guardians ML (-140)

 

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Robert Duff

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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
NCAAF
NCAAB
Tennis

An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.

Author: Jesse Smith