Germany vs Italy Odds & Picks

Germany vs Italy Odds & Picks

Iceland vs Germany

Germany’s scorer Jonas Hofmann, second right, and his teammates celebrate their side’s fifth goal during the World Cup 2022 group J qualifying soccer match between Germany and Armenia at Mercedes-Benz Arena stadium in Stuttgart, Germany, Sunday, Sept. 5, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthias Schrader)

It’s Germany vs Italy on Tuesday, June 14 on Matchday 4 of the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League
Italy currently leads League A Group 3 but a win for Germany could take them top
We preview the game, look at Germany vs Italy odds, and offer some picks below

It is Germany vs Italy in Monchengladbach in round four of the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, June 14 at 2:45 pm ET.

Both teams drew at the weekend and will be looking for a win to strengthen their position in League A Group 3 as they conclude a hectic few weeks of Nations League soccer. Italy currently leads the group while Germany is down in third.

We preview Germany vs Italy and offer below some analysis, team news, and picks for this huge Nations League clash.

Germany vs Italy Odds


Odds as of June 13 at Caesars Sportsbook. 

The bookmakers have Germany listed as hot favorites with their home advantage potentially being decisive. They are currently -135 for the win, with an implied win probability of 57.45%. Italy, given its impressive campaign so far, is surprisingly unfancied at +370 with an implied win probability of just 21.28%.

The draw offers a good return at +270 with an implied probability of 27.03%.

Over/Under and Spread

Caesars has pitched ‘over 2.5 goals’ at -105, and under 2.5 at -125 – neither offering great value.

If you’re relatively new to betting on this sport and want to know about Asian Handicaps and Pointspreads then our page offers help on how to bet on this game and other summer internationals.

Germany vs Italy Prediction

Germany needs a win desperately if they are to qualify for next summer’s finals as group winners. Three consecutive draws have left them in third place, but it remains a very tight group and victory will take them top if Hungary fails to beat England.

Final training in Budapest before the team heads to Mönchengladbach ⚽#DieMannschaft #GERITA

— Germany (@DFB_Team_EN) June 13, 2022

At the weekend, the Germans had to come back from a goal down early on to draw with Hungary in Budapest, with Jonas Hofmann equalizing for them in the ninth minute after they had fallen behind in the sixth. They failed to capitalize on having lots of possession but the draw did extend their unbeaten run to an impressive 12 games.

The points are shared at the Puskás Aréna.#DieMannschaft #HUNGER

— Germany (@DFB_Team_EN) June 11, 2022

Win Needed if Germans Are to Top Group

With the group concluding in September – they play Hungary in Leipzig and then travel to Wembley to play England – the Germans are running out of chances of getting those vital wins on the board, so will be hoping to end their run of draws in front of what’s likely to be a boisterous Monchengladbach crowd.

In their favor, is a recent good record against the Italians against whom they are unbeaten in their last five meetings.

Germany vs Italy Head-to-Head Stats

Nations League record
3 / 3
Goals for / Goals against
3 / 2
Current group position
Current FIFA world ranking
Form guide (all competitions)

Mancini Rings the Changes

Despite winning last summer’s Euros, Roberto Mancini’s men failed to make it to Qatar 2022 after dramatically losing a playoff final 1-0 to North Macedonia. While Mancini stayed loyal to his ‘old guard’ during World Cup qualification, their failure to get to Qatar led to him overhauling the squad and bringing in a whole new bunch of talented youngsters.

Touchdown in Düsseldorf 🛬@armani #NationsLeague #Azzurri #VivoAzzurro

— Italy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@Azzurri_En) June 13, 2022

Mancini’s new crop has performed admirably so far and to lead a group that also includes Germany and England at the halfway stage is, in itself, a positive sign.  Their 0-0 draw in Wolverhampton on Saturday against a strong England side was further evidence of a squad that may be inexperienced but is full of talent.

Drawn in Bologna

Such has been the turnover in players over the last few months, only two players who played for Italy in last summer’s Euro Final at Wembley started against England at the weekend.

This is the second time the Italians have met the Germans in 10 days, with the clash in Bologna ending 1-1, with Roma skipper Lorenzo Pellegrini giving the Italians a 70th-minute lead, which was negated just three minutes later with a goal from Joshua Kimmich.

Just a few snaps from our hard-fought draw in the #NationsLeague in Wolverhampton last night 📸🐺#ENGITA #Azzurri #VivoAzzurro

— Italy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@Azzurri_En) June 12, 2022

Germany vs Italy Team Lineups and Injuries

Germany Projected Lineup: Neuer, Klostermann, Sule, Rudiger, Hofmann, Kimmich, Gundogan, Raum, Sane, Muller, Havertz.

Germany Injuries: Gnabry, Reus.

Italy Projected Lineup: Donnarumma, Florenzi, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco, Frattesi, Tonali, Barella, Pellegrini, Scamacca, Pessina.

Italy Injuries: Kean, Sirigu, Jorginho.

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Germany vs Italy Pick

Italy has done exceptionally well to lead this group and seems to be continually underestimated by the pundits and bookies. Also, this is a German team that’s almost forgotten how to win, so the value here is definitely with a low-scoring draw.

Pick: Germany and Italy to draw (+270) / Germany and Italy to draw 1-1 (+600)


Author Image

Gary Gowers

Sports Writer

Sports Writer

Once just a sports fanatic, fan-turned-writer Gary Gowers has been featured on European television and radio networks to discuss several professional football clubs. His work can be found in an assortment of publications like The Metro,, and BBC Radio Norfolk.


Once just a sports fanatic, fan-turned-writer Gary Gowers has been featured on European television and radio networks to discuss several professional football clubs. His work can be found in an assortment of publications like The Metro,, and BBC Radio Norfolk.

Author: Jesse Smith