Georgia Governor Odds Show Brian Kemp Favored Over Stacey Abrams

Georgia Governor Odds Show Brian Kemp Favored Over Stacey Abrams

Stacey Abrams and Brian Kemp shown side by side

Stacey Abrams, Brian Kemp

Kempabrams 2

Incumbent Republican Brian Kemp is the -500 favorite to retain the governorship of Georgia
Democrat Stacey Abrams is given +350 odds of unseating Kemp from office
Kemp narrowly defeated Abrams in the 2018 election for Georgia Governor

Democrat Stacey Abrams gave Republican Brian Kemp a run for his money in the 2018 Georgia Gubernatorial election. Kemp barely won, collecting 50.2% of the vote, compared to 48.2 for Abrams. The margin of victory was approximately 55,000 votes.

Four years later in the rematch, neither the polls nor the betting odds are seeing the outcome being anywhere near as close. Depending upon which poll is checked, Kemp is currently leading Abrams by anywhere from 4.8 to 5.1 percentage points.

Oddsmakers are even more bullish on the result being a Kemp victory. He’s listing as the -500 favorite. Abrams is a +350 underdog.

2022 Georgia Governor Election Odds

Candidate
Odds
Brian Kemp
-500
Stacey Abrams
+350

Odds from William Hill as of July 6th.

It’s important to keep in mind that Americans cannot bet on US politics markets. These markets are only open to bettors in other parts of the world.

At a betting line of -500, Kemp is given an implied probability of victory of 83.33%. A $10 wager on him would bring a payout of $12 should he win the 2022 Georgia Gubernatorial election. Bet the same $10 on Abrams at her +350 odds and you’ll get a payout of $45. That betting line is leaving her with an IP of victory that is at 22.22%.

It’s the first time since 1950 that there’s been a rematch in the race for Governor of Georgia. The last three Governors of the state were all Republicans. Roy Barnes was the last Democrat to serve as Georgia’s Governor. He left office in 2003.

Kemp’s War Chest Is Well Stocked

There’s a unique and some would say unfair aspect to Georgia Governor elections that Kemp is taking advantage of in the race against Abrams. It’s called the Georgians First Leadership Committee. This is a  special state fundraising vehicle enabling the governor to collect unlimited contributions and coordinate spending with his campaign.

#NEW: Georgia Governor Brian Kemp (R) raised $3.8M in the past 2 months + a Kemp-aligned PAC, the Georgians First Leadership Committee, raised an additional $3M during the same period

— Joel Weingart (@JoelWeingart_) July 6, 2022

He’s garnered $3 million alone from this fundraising device and it’s making a difference. Kemp has already raised $23 million, more than the $22.4 million he bankrolled during his 2018 victory over Abrams. Abrams has raised $20 million for her campaign.

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Kemp Distances Himself From Trump

Georgians turned away from Donald Trump during the 2020 US Presidential election. Kemp has since also sought to put space between himself and the Donald, who held the White House as a Republican from 2017-20. Trump harbors bitterness toward Kemp because he refused to overturn the Georgia results of the 2020 Presidential election, when Democrat Joe Biden beat Trump by 12,000 votes.

Brian Kemp was the stronger candidate for the GOP for Georgia Governor than David Perdue. With Kemp as the Republican nominee, the race right now is Lean R. Had David Perdue won the Republican nomination, the race would have likely been Tossup or Lean D.

— Landon (@_L4ND0N) July 3, 2022

In the Republican primaries for Governor, Trump threw his support behind David Perdue, the former US Senator from Georgia. Kemp drew the endorsement of Mike Pence, Trump’s vice-president.

The distance he put between himself and Trump paid dividends for Kemp. He whipped Perdue by more than 50 points. That doesn’t bode well for Trump to carry Georgia in the 2024 US Presidential odds should he win the Republican nomination.

Georgia Has Been Going Blue

The state of Georgia has been steadily turning blue in recent years and Abrams gets much of the credit for that fact. She was the point person for rallying voters in the state to get out and cast ballots against Trump and others on the Republican ticket. She’s also a top-20 contender for the Democratic nomination odds for the 2024 US Presidential election.

Besides Trump’s loss to Biden, Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff won Senate seats in 2020. Warnock is up for re-election against Republican Herschel Walker, the 1980 Heisman Trophy winner. Polling shows Warnock leading Walker 54-44.

‘I want to sit in the captain’s chair’ — @staceyabrams spoke to NowThis about running for Georgia governor again and how her voyage into politics mirrors her favorite show, ‘Star Trek’ pic.twitter.com/I8A6kUWHWv

— NowThis (@nowthisnews) June 28, 2022

It doesn’t appear that this blue wave is going to enable Abrams to overcome Kemp, though. With Trump out of office, there’s no longer a lightning rod uniting Democrats to turn out at the polls. It also won’t help her cause that, at 36%, Biden’s approval rating is as low as it’s been since he took office.

 

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Robert Duff

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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
NCAAF
NCAAB
Tennis

An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.

Author: Jesse Smith