Four of the Top 10 NFL Teams Will Miss the Playoffs, According to Strong Trend

Four of the Top 10 NFL Teams Will Miss the Playoffs, According to Strong Trend

NFL playoff odds

Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon (28) runs into the end zone as Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Eli Apple (20) runs behind him during Cincinnati Bengals preseason training camp at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati on Saturday, July 30, 2022.

Cincinnati Bengals Training Camp 654

The Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams top the 2022 SBD against the spread NFL power rankings
History suggests four of the top 10 teams on this list will be missing the NFL playoffs
Which four teams among this group are the best bests to fail to make the NFL postseason?

When it comes to assessing which clubs are going to make the NFL Playoffs, the SBD against the spread NFL power rankings should be a solid indicator. This analytical data combines a team’s strength of schedule with their combined game-by-game odds.

The NFL power rankings offer a preseason assessment of which NFL teams figure to be elite during the upcoming campaign. Here’s a look at the top 10 teams on this list, along with their odds of making or missing the NFL Playoffs.

NFL ATS Power Rankings Trend

Team
NFL ATS Power Ranking
Odds To Make Playoffs
Odds To Miss Playoffs
Buffalo Bills
-85
-550
+400
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-77
-650
+450
Los Angeles Rams
-61
-250
+200
Green Bay Packers
-56
-500
+350
Los Angeles Chargers
-55
-160
+130
Kansas City Chiefs
-53
-215
+170
Cincinnati Bengals
-39
-135
+115
Baltimore Ravens
-35.5
-150
+125
Indianapolis Colts
-35
-175
+140
San Francisco 49ers
-34
-255
+175

Odds as of August 2 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code before betting

At a betting line of -650, the Tampa Bay Buccanneers are offering the best implied probability of making the playoffs at 86.67%. Bet $10 on Tampa Bay to make the playoffs and if the Buccaneers are indeed postseason participants, the payout will be $11.50.

An NFL Playoffs Believe It or Not

Certainly, this top-10 list could be considered a who’s who of elite NFL squads. Get ready to call Ripley’s though, because when it comes to assessing the NFL playoff odds, history shows that there’s a 40% chance of missing out on postseason play among this group.

Which one of these teams is most likely to miss the playoffs? #NFL pic.twitter.com/FtK6UJs7qW

— OutOfSightSports🚀 ™️ (@OOSSports) July 28, 2022

Amazingly, at least half of the top ten teams in ATS +/- have missed the playoffs in five of the last seven years. It did not happen in 2020 or 2021, but they also expanded the playoffs to include an extra wild card spot in each conference these seasons. At least two of the top five have missed the playoffs in four of the last seven seasons. Last season saw two of the top six miss out on the playoffs.

The teams in this top-10 group are leading favorites in the NFL Conference championship odds. Almost all of them are assigned double-digits in the NFL win total odds. Yet the past year saw four of the top ten miss out on postseason play.

Based on that number, which four teams might be the best bets to be playoff outsiders in 2020? Let’s take a look at the possibilities and probabilities to be considered in your NFL betting strategies.

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These Four Won’t Score Positions In NFL Playoffs

Which of the top-10 teams in the NFL power rankings figure to be part of this less than Fab Four? Well, right off the bat, the San Francisco 49ers look to be vulnerable.

Over the past four seasons, San Francisco has made the playoffs in odd-numbered years and missed the playoffs in even-numbered years. So you’ve got that trend going for you.

Trey Lance red-zone INT to Charvarius Ward. That’s the 49ers’ 11th pick of camp (5 practices), matching their INT total from the entirety of last season’s camp

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) August 1, 2022

Then there’s the switch at quarterback, where second-year man Trey Lance is taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo with just two NFL starts under his belt. That worked out well a few years back for the Kansas City Chiefs when they went from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes. Hands up everyone who thinks that Lance will be the second coming of Mahomes.

The Green Bay Packers have taken advantage of residing in the weak NFC North for several years. This season, that party comes to an end. Minnesota is a strengthened squad and has competent coaching in place. Detroit is trending upward. Meanwhile, the Packers are minus All-Pro wideout Davante Adams and were among the worst defenses in the NFL at stopping the run last season.

Will Bengals Regress?

Last season, the Cincinnati Bengals ended a five-year postseason drought and lost in the Super Bowl. In 1988, the Bengals ended a five-year postseason drought and lost in the Super Bowl. The next season, they went 8-8 and missed the playoffs. Will history repeat itself? Well, generally teams that made a steep and sudden improvement tend to regress the following season.

Their schedule strengthens and opponents are taking them more seriously. Regressing even a bit from a 10-7 season likely means no playoffs for Cincinnati.

Drop your hot take for the upcoming NFL Season 👇

We’ll go first: The Chiefs will finish last in the AFC West and miss the playoffs pic.twitter.com/FwtEdfvCow

— PointsBet Sportsbook (@PointsBetUSA) July 23, 2022

Could the Chiefs actually miss the playoffs? Kansas City has won seven successive AFC West titles. The Chiefs are averaging 11.85 wins per season over that span. But All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill is gone.

Last season, KC opened 3-4 before rallying to win nine of their last 10 games. Top to bottom, the AFC West is the NFL’s deepest group. The Chiefs won’t survive another slow start.

Picks to Miss NFL Playoffs: Cincinnati Bengals (+115), Green Bay Packers (+350), Kansas City Chiefs (+170), San Francisco 49ers (+175).

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Robert Duff

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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
NCAAF
NCAAB
Tennis

An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.

Author: Jesse Smith