Conn Smythe Odds Favor Makar, MacKinnon Entering Stanley Cup Finals

Conn Smythe Odds Favor Makar, MacKinnon Entering Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar skating back to the bench

May 31, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar (8) following his goal in the first period against the Edmonton Oilers in game one of the Western Conference Final of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The Conn Smythe odds heavily favor Colorado players as the Avs get set to face Tampa Bay in the finals
Makar leads all remaining players in both points-per-game and time-on-ice
Below, see the updated Conn Smythe odds and betting analysis

The Stanley Cup finals get underway tonight with Game 1 between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche. With Colorado favored in both the Lightning vs Avalanche series odds and the Tampa Bay vs Colorado Game 1 odds. it comes as no surprise that the Conn Smythe odds also heavily favor Avs players.

2022 Conn Smythe Odds

Player
Odds
Cale Makar (D, COL)
+185
Nathan MacKinnon (F, COL)
+220
Andrei Vasilevskiy (G, TB)
+425
Nikita Kucherov (F, TB)
+450
Steven Stamkos (F, TB)
+1300
Gabriel Landeskog (F, COL)
+2000
Victor Hedman (D, TB)
+2100
Ondrej Palat (F, TB)
+2400
Mikko Rantanen (F, COL)
+2500
Nazem Kadri (F, COL)
+3000
Darcy Kuemper (G, COL)
+3500
Anthony Cirelli (F, TB)
+7000
Brayden Point (F, TB)
+7500
Devon Toews (D, COL)
+10000
Corey Perry (F, TB)
+10000

Odds as of June 15, 2022, at Barstool Sportsbook. See available Barstool Sportsbook promo code.

The Conn Smythe-Winner Will Come from the Winning Team

The Conn Smythe has been handed out 53 times since 1965. Only five times in the history of the award has it been won by a player on the losing team. Since 1987, that’s only happened one time (Anaheim’s JS Giguere in 2003).

No player has a statistical edge great enough to warrant winning the Conn Smythe if his team loses the finals. That means the first step to handicapping this prop is handicapping the series. The average Stanley Cup odds have Colorado at -175 and Tampa at +150. Taking out the vig, the implied probability of the finals odds give the Avalanche a 61.4% chance to win, leaving 38.6% for Tampa Bay.

Top 4 Stanley Cup Finals Betting Offers for Tampa Bay vs Colorado Series

Makar Has Statistical Lead Entering Finals

Makar has been nothing short of phenomenal throughout Colorado’s run to the finals, picking up where he left off in the regular season. Now, not only is he a big favorite in the Norris Trophy odds, he’s also the Conn Smythe favorite for playoff MVP.

It’s important for bettors to remember that the Conn Smythe takes into account a player’s body of work throughout the playoffs, unlike the NBA Finals MVP. So what has transpired in the first three rounds of the postseason is very relevant. And as the table below shows, among the players who are still alive, Makar has been the best of the bunch, statistically.

Conn Smythe Favorites Head-to-Head Stats

Player
Games
Goals
Points
TOI
+/-
Cale Makar
14
5
22
27:04
+11
Nathan MacKinnon
14
11
18
21:06
+12
Nikita Kucherov
17
7
23
20:59
+4
Steven Stamkos
17
9
15
18:37
+4
Gabriel Landeskog
14
9
17
20:38
+14
Victor Hedman
17
2
14
24:30
+3
Ondrej Palat
17
8
16
16:41
+9
Mikko Rantanen
14
5
17
20:16
+2
Nazem Kadri
13
6
14
17:16
+7
Anthony Cirelli
17
1
5
20:07
0
Brayden Point
7
2
4
19:10
-6
Devon Toews
14
5
13
25:50
+9
Corey Perry
17
5
8
12;21
-1

That said, the table above only compares skaters. The X-factor here is the man who won the award just last season: Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.

The Russian has taken a small step back compared to last year’s playoffs, but has still been excellent between the pipes.

In his 2021 Conn Smythe postseason, he recorded a .937 SV% and 1.90 GAA. This year, he’s sitting at .928 SV% and 2.27 GAA entering the finals.

2022 Conn Smythe Best Bet

As mentioned above, the current odds to win the series give Tampa a 38.6% chance to win the Cup. Vasilevskiy’s +425 odds put his implied probability at exactly 19.05%. That means, if we accept that Tampa’s implied probability is accurate, Vasilevskiy would have to win the Conn Smythe at least 49.4% of the time that Tampa wins the series in order to be worth a wager.

In reality, I think that drastically undervalues his the Russian’s chances of winning if he backstops the Bolts to a third straight Cup.

It’s highly likely that the Avalanche are going to control the majority of play throughout the series and generate significantly more shots on goal. If Tampa wins, the box score is going to make it look like Vasilevskiy stole some games. And that’s the kind of narrative that voters love.

Pick: Vasilevskiy (+4000)

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Sascha Paruk

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Managing Editor

Managing Editor

Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has now been an assigning editor, writer, and lead oddsmaker for SBD for over seven years. He covers everything you can possibly put odds on, but specializes in football, baseball, hockey, and basketball.

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
NCAAF
NCAAB
Politics
Tennis
MMA
Sportsbooks
Gambling

Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has now been an assigning editor, writer, and lead oddsmaker for SBD for over seven years. He covers everything you can possibly put odds on, but specializes in football, baseball, hockey, and basketball.

Author: Jesse Smith