Browns Odds Now 4-1 to Win AFC North, 40-1 for Super Bowl After Deshaun Watson Suspended for 11 Games

What Would Browns' Super Bowl Odds Fade to if NFL's Appeal of Suspension Is Successful?

Deshaun Watson hands on waist at training camp

Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson, right, and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt watch from the sideline during the NFL football team’s football training camp in Berea on Monday.

Camp Watson 5

Deshaun Watson’s suspension has been extended to 11 games following a settlement between the league and the NFLPA
Watson will also be fined $5 million and have to undergo professional evaluation and treatment
See how the latest suspension could impact the Browns’ title odds below

The NFL didn’t get everything they wanted in their appeal of Deshaun Watson’s six-game suspension, but the quarterback was handed a more palatable ban as he faces 24 separate lawsuits for sexual misconduct accusations.

Watson’s suspension was increased to 11 games by former New Jersey attorney general Peter C. Harvey, who the league tabbed to handle the appeal of the initial ruling by disciplinary officer Sue L. Robinson.

In an interesting schedule quirk, this means the first game Watson will be eligible to return for is Week 13 against his former team the Houston Texans.

As for what the extended suspension means for the Browns’ odds? Obviously, it hasn’t helped their NFL Playoff Odds.

Cleveland Browns Futures Odds

To Win Super Bowl
Odds
Buffalo Bills
+600
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+750
Kansas City Chiefs
+1000
Green Bay Packers
+1100
Los Angeles Rams
+1100
Los Angeles Chargers
+1500
San Francisco 49ers
+1600
Baltimore Ravens
+1800
Denver Broncos
+1800
Cincinnati Bengals
+2000
Dallas Cowboys
+2000
Indianapolis Colts
+2500
Philadelphia Eagles
+3000
Arizona Cardinals
+4000
Cleveland Browns
+4000
Las Vegas Raiders
+4000
To Win AFC North Division
Odds
Baltimore Ravens
+140
Cincinnati Bengals
+170
Cleveland Browns
+450
Pittsburgh Steelers
+800
Browns 2022-23 Win Total
Odds
8.5 Wins
Ov +110 / Un -140

*SB and Division Odds from Aug 18 at Barstool Sportsbook, win total from Aug 18 at DraftKings.

 

 

Cleveland’s Super Bowl odds have dropped from around +2500 when Watson was only figured to be missing for a third of the year. Now facing the prospect of having Jacoby Brissett start until December, the Browns have dropped big both in terms of Super Bowl chances and division odds.

Cleveland is still third in the AFC North odds, but have slid back to +450, while all their rivals enjoyed marginal gains. The Browns NFL win total odds are still listed at 8.5; perhaps a long Watson suspension was already baked into the total?  Regardless, the under is getting hammered after today’s news.

The Mistake By The Lake?

The Watson signing was clearly a terrible move for Cleveland in terms of PR. But a championship for the title-starved Browns was always going to offset the damage done to their reputation. Now Watson is set to miss over two-thirds of next season, and that could absence could be even longer if he can’t demonstrate change.

Deshaun Watson has to comply with eval and treatment recommendations of a third-party behavioral expert to be reinstated. His reinstatement is contingent upon his compliance with the treatment plan. If he doesn’t comply, his reinstatement could be delayed, plus further discipline

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 18, 2022

Even the rosiest outlook for the 2022 Browns would have Watson returning to the team in the midst of a tight wildcard race in the AFC. That would be a heck of a time for the QB to get his first real game action since 2020.

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Browns Backup Options

Brissett is a perfectly fine quarterback, who will allow the rest of this talented Browns roster to at least have a chance on Sundays. That’s about the best they could hope for, even if the team is able to trade for another QB, it won’t be somebody who can elevate Cleveland above average.

“They are NOT going to trade for Jimmy Garoppolo.”@jjones9 breaks down what’s next for the Browns at QB after Deshaun Watson was handed an 11-game suspension. pic.twitter.com/mAdgI3f1Ac

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) August 18, 2022

Whether Jimmy Garoppolo is really off the board doesn’t matter greatly. He’s not a QB that can carry a team, famously throwing just 27 passes on his way to the Super Bowl with the Niners in 2019: a game they lost because he couldn’t make a big-time throw.

The Browns are spectacular in some positions, solid in others, but face questions at pass catcher and now under center.

If you’re scoring at home, the #Browns have lost three players for the season to major injuries this training camp:

KR/WR Jakeem Grant (Achilles)
-Out for the year

C Nick Harris (Knee)
-Out for year

C Dawson Deaton (ACL)
-Done for the year

— John Sabol (@John_Sabol) August 17, 2022

When you look at the teams in their title odds neighborhood: the Cardinals, Raiders, Vikings and Dolphins, they all boast passing games I’d trust more than the Browns at this stage.

If you’re backing teams with these long of odds, you need to be able to envision how they’ll win in January. And I have a far easier time seeing Kyler Murray go nuclear or Kirk Cousins finally string together some great games in a weak NFC, than I do the Browns ground and pounding their way through an AFC with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert… need I go on?

There’s no reason to back the Browns on any futures at this point. There may be some value on their win total in a few days when all the dust settles though.

 

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Eric Thompson

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Eric Thompson has been with SBD since 2015, serving as a sports betting expert in NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB. If you want someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes sports news and betting, Eric is your man. Having studied economics at university, he understands what value is and how to spot it.

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
NCAAF
NCAAB

Eric Thompson has been with SBD since 2015, serving as a sports betting expert in NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB. If you want someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes sports news and betting, Eric is your man. Having studied economics at university, he understands what value is and how to spot it.

Author: Jesse Smith